26 games into the season, sleeper favorite Philly has fired a coach, lost Elton Brand to a major injury, and uniformly disappointed the basketball media. Given the rising strength of the East's "middle class" after Boston and Cleveland, the Sixers even look iffy for the playoffs. So, what went wrong, and what can the Sixers do to correct this problem?
A Bust By Any Other Name
Interestingly, Elton Brand has cultivated a reputation as an elite player in the NBA. This is despite playing in 12 playoff games in a 9+ year career. And despite being little more than a more media-savvy Zach Randolph (I'd say classier, but walking out on a handshake deal with the Clippers last summer was a non-story only because of the Clippers' bumbling reputation). Brand is an effective low-post scorer (20.1 career ppg on 50.3 FG% and 73.7 FT%), a once-great, now-good offensive rebounder (he hasn't been near the league leaders in OffReb% since 2005), and a pedestrian defender whose reputation is padded by impressive block totals, which hide a lack of quickness and size that precludes him from effectively guarding the real "elite" at his position.
Brand could be a useful player on many teams, but the currently constructed Sixers are not one of them. Last year, the Sixers were an average team who overcame a dearth of offensive sophistication (league worst FT and 3PT percentages) with piles of easy buckets coming from:
1) fast break hoops created by a ball-hawking, plus defense at almost every position that caused extra possessions (117 more turnovers for Sixers' opponents, 4th in the league in steals)
2) put-backs and dunks courtesy of the league's 2nd best offensive rebounding.
Brand's strengths and the Sixers' needs are clearly not congruent. Brand's ability to score and rebound in the post replaced already efficient contributions by Samuel Dalembert, Reggie Evans and Thaddeus Young. Effectively, Brand pushed Dalembert out of his comfort zone, Young to the perimeter and Evans to the bench in order to average less than 45 FG% and less than 3 offensive rpg for 36 mpg. Furthermore, the Sixers with Brand are now about league average in steals, and have a negative turnover differential. While I will be the first to admit that a team can be effective in transition without having thoroughbreds at every position, the stats point to the Sixers having a less dynamic defense this year. Back to the offensive end, Brand doesn't shoot enough threes or shoot free throws well enough to solve the Sixers' problems there.
What's the solution?
Clearly, Brand and his 6-year, $80 million dollar contract aren't going anywhere soon. In the future, the Sixers should deploy Brand in advantageous situations. Ideally, Brand should be deployed with inefficient scorers Willie Green and Lou Williams to minimize their negative impact on production, and hopefully produce more double-downs in the post, resulting in open looks that will make these poor shooters perhaps average. When playing with the younger second unit, Brand could provide a consistent option for every offensive set, as well as "veteran presence" on the court. Brand makes too much money not to start, but anchoring the Sixers' reserves would be a more effective use for his talents. Besides, what better way for Brand to continue being classy than to accept a non-traditional role!
Additionally, the Sixers should make a hard push for Ben Gordon, either in trade or in 2009 free agency. In his career, Gordon shoots over 41% from three and 85% from the free throw line, blowing away the meager contributions of Green and Williams. An in-season trade of Williams and promising but injured Jason Smith would require Gordon's permission, but an outright signing next summer could be tricky to do with Gordon's contract demands, and potential negotiations with Andre Miller. Despite these drawbacks, Gordon is one of the few players available that could help address the Sixers most pressing offensive issues.
*All stats are from Basketball Reference
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Pistons 2009 Free Agent Shopping List
While I delay Christmas shopping with my hard-earned student loan money till the last possible second, that doesn't stop me from spending other people's money long before it's even in their hands. In this edition of PHR, I will be spending Bill Davidson's money, acting as a shorter and paler Joe Dumars.
Why the Pistons are doomed in 2008-2009
I should first point out that the Pistons are in line to finish this season with home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Why the rush to ponder next season?
1) Boston and Cleveland look significantly better than Detroit. Both clubs are surpassing the Pistons (and everyone else) in scoring differential, which is quite telling of contenders and pretenders over long NBA seasons.
2) Allen Iverson is a winner, but just not on the court. As detailed on Wages of Wins, there is a telling pattern in AI's career, whereby teams struggle to met expectations with Iverson, and go on to exceed expectations once he is gone. Quickly glancing at the stats, Iverson is a classic case of too many shots going to an inefficient shooter. More damningly, Iverson holds onto the ball on offense like few others in the history of the game (you can track this statistically by looking at his Usg% on Basketball Reference, or you can just watch a Pistons game). Clearly, Dumars wanted Iverson for something more than his on-court play. . .
3) . . .which leads me to main point: Detroit's best chance to land a free agent could be 2009, not 2010. With the expiring contracts of AI and Rasheed Wallace, the Pistons can be as much as $20 million below the salary cap (using the $58 million figure for 2008-2009). Of course, they could save for the 2010 free agent bonanza, but they would have to get in line behind much more attractive destinations, like the New York Knicks, New Jersey Nets/Brooklyn JayZs, Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns. Its doubtful LeBron, Wade, Bosh or Amare would flock to the Motor City as a first or second choice. So, it might make more sense to strike in 2009, or better yet, make a move in both years.
Who could the Pistons add in 2009?
When he opts-out, Carlos Boozer will be highly sought after for his low post scoring and overall rugged play. However, the Pistons will likely be third in line behind his current team (Utah can pay him the most), and the Miami Heat (Boozer lives in Florida, which happens to have advantageous state income tax provisions).
A few more names to rule out would be Kobe Bryant (he won't exercise his termination option to move to Detroit), Ben Gordon (not a great fit) and Ron Artest (!). Dumars is high on Rodney Stuckey and Amir Johnson, both of whom are playing productive minutes early in their careers. With Stuckey and Johnson joining Tayshaun Prince and the recently extended Jason Maxiell and Richard Hamilton to form Detroit's future core, Detroit is likely looking to the frontcourt for free agent help.
I see three free agent "combo forwards" who fit the bill: Hedo Turkoglu, Lamar Odom and Shawn Marion.
Marion is a nifty player who appears to be entering the decline phase of his career (he's 31 come may). Dumars is not likely getting rid of older players merely to replace them with slightly younger players who rely primarily with their athleticism. Odom is bigger and younger (29), but possesses many of the same skills as Prince. This is not a deal-breaker, depending upon what the market for the ever-mercurial Odom is.
Of the 3 players, only Hedo actually seems to be improving. At 29, he is coming off his best statistical season, and has emerged as a focal point in Orlando's offense. Ignoring his slow start this year, Hedo has increased his offensive efficiency as he has taken on more offensive responsibility, evolving from a three-point specialist early in his career into an overall scorer in the past few years.
What's the offer?
Certainly, Turkoglu is not a max or near-max type of player. But he could be quite an asset teamed with Hamilton, Prince and Stuckey in a fluid offense of players all comfortable handling the ball, slashing to the basket, and hitting open shots, bringing in the beefier Maxiell from time to time to combat bigger lineups. Consider also that signing Hedo takes him away from a conference competitor, and signing the Turkish Delight to a substantial contract becomes a reasonable proposition.
A 4 year, 54 million dollar frontloaded deal (say, 15 million in 2009-10, 14 mil in 2010-11, 13 mil in 2011-12, and 12 mil in 2012-13) would effectively dare the Magic to go significantly into the luxury tax to resign Hedo (thanks to Otis Smith's questionable decision to pay Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis like franchise cornerstones), while minimizing the risk that the Pistons would pay for Hedo's decline years. Such a contract would allow for future free agent additions, or extensions for current and future rookie contracts.
Why the Pistons are doomed in 2008-2009
I should first point out that the Pistons are in line to finish this season with home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Why the rush to ponder next season?
1) Boston and Cleveland look significantly better than Detroit. Both clubs are surpassing the Pistons (and everyone else) in scoring differential, which is quite telling of contenders and pretenders over long NBA seasons.
2) Allen Iverson is a winner, but just not on the court. As detailed on Wages of Wins, there is a telling pattern in AI's career, whereby teams struggle to met expectations with Iverson, and go on to exceed expectations once he is gone. Quickly glancing at the stats, Iverson is a classic case of too many shots going to an inefficient shooter. More damningly, Iverson holds onto the ball on offense like few others in the history of the game (you can track this statistically by looking at his Usg% on Basketball Reference, or you can just watch a Pistons game). Clearly, Dumars wanted Iverson for something more than his on-court play. . .
3) . . .which leads me to main point: Detroit's best chance to land a free agent could be 2009, not 2010. With the expiring contracts of AI and Rasheed Wallace, the Pistons can be as much as $20 million below the salary cap (using the $58 million figure for 2008-2009). Of course, they could save for the 2010 free agent bonanza, but they would have to get in line behind much more attractive destinations, like the New York Knicks, New Jersey Nets/Brooklyn JayZs, Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns. Its doubtful LeBron, Wade, Bosh or Amare would flock to the Motor City as a first or second choice. So, it might make more sense to strike in 2009, or better yet, make a move in both years.
Who could the Pistons add in 2009?
When he opts-out, Carlos Boozer will be highly sought after for his low post scoring and overall rugged play. However, the Pistons will likely be third in line behind his current team (Utah can pay him the most), and the Miami Heat (Boozer lives in Florida, which happens to have advantageous state income tax provisions).
A few more names to rule out would be Kobe Bryant (he won't exercise his termination option to move to Detroit), Ben Gordon (not a great fit) and Ron Artest (!). Dumars is high on Rodney Stuckey and Amir Johnson, both of whom are playing productive minutes early in their careers. With Stuckey and Johnson joining Tayshaun Prince and the recently extended Jason Maxiell and Richard Hamilton to form Detroit's future core, Detroit is likely looking to the frontcourt for free agent help.
I see three free agent "combo forwards" who fit the bill: Hedo Turkoglu, Lamar Odom and Shawn Marion.
Marion is a nifty player who appears to be entering the decline phase of his career (he's 31 come may). Dumars is not likely getting rid of older players merely to replace them with slightly younger players who rely primarily with their athleticism. Odom is bigger and younger (29), but possesses many of the same skills as Prince. This is not a deal-breaker, depending upon what the market for the ever-mercurial Odom is.
Of the 3 players, only Hedo actually seems to be improving. At 29, he is coming off his best statistical season, and has emerged as a focal point in Orlando's offense. Ignoring his slow start this year, Hedo has increased his offensive efficiency as he has taken on more offensive responsibility, evolving from a three-point specialist early in his career into an overall scorer in the past few years.
What's the offer?
Certainly, Turkoglu is not a max or near-max type of player. But he could be quite an asset teamed with Hamilton, Prince and Stuckey in a fluid offense of players all comfortable handling the ball, slashing to the basket, and hitting open shots, bringing in the beefier Maxiell from time to time to combat bigger lineups. Consider also that signing Hedo takes him away from a conference competitor, and signing the Turkish Delight to a substantial contract becomes a reasonable proposition.
A 4 year, 54 million dollar frontloaded deal (say, 15 million in 2009-10, 14 mil in 2010-11, 13 mil in 2011-12, and 12 mil in 2012-13) would effectively dare the Magic to go significantly into the luxury tax to resign Hedo (thanks to Otis Smith's questionable decision to pay Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis like franchise cornerstones), while minimizing the risk that the Pistons would pay for Hedo's decline years. Such a contract would allow for future free agent additions, or extensions for current and future rookie contracts.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Is Millsap Ready for Primetime?
Watching Paul Millsap run up impressive totals starting in Carlos Boozer's stead, I've started to wonder: should the Jazz let Boozer walk when he becomes a free agent at the end of the year? Under this scenario, the Jazz would resign Millsap, who is himself a restricted free agent after the season.
What are the facts?
Here is what we have to work with at this point:
1) No one would be surprised if Boozer left: Any Google search for "carlos boozer miami" will net an interesting assortment of rumors and innuendo. But it should be noted that Boozer lives in Florida, likely wants to be closer to his family given the illness that befell his young child, and had little trouble leaving Cleveland in 2004 (amid conflicting reports). Leaving aside the troublesome aspects of the rumor mill, I think its clear that Boozer is someone very interesting in being around his family and making a lot of money. You can draw your own conclusion...
2) Utah does not want to pay luxury tax: Larry Miller is noted as one the league's most involved, and outspoken, owners. His position on the luxury tax (part the soft cap apparatus designed to discourage outrageous spending while permitting teams to make the moves they feel necessary, albeit at a price) has been clear for several years. He does not want to pay, and does not think he can, given the nature of the SLC market. The recent max contract extension for Deron Williams precludes Utah from offering max or near-max money to Boozer without serious roster re-construction.
3) Millsap has been good: While starting for Boozer, Millsap has caught national attention. Millsap was nurtured in Jerry Sloan's system, and Sloan has shown increasing confidence in Millsap with each passing year. Statistically, Millsap scores as efficiently as Boozer (applying TS% and eFG%), uses the ball less than Boozer (according to Usg%), hits the offensive boards as effectively as Boozer, and shuts down his opponents (according to 82games.com's calculation of opponent PER).
4) Millsap will be much cheaper than Boozer: Boozer will likely command a max extension (5 years, $90 million), especially as the top free agent prize in the underrated 2009 free agent market. However, Millsap can likely be had at a discount. He doesn't have Boozer's reputation as a cornerstone for a franchise. Also, teams interested in Millsap might save their money to pursue a bigger name in 2010. Finally, Utah will have the right to match any offers to Millsap. Jason Maxiell's recent extension was 4 years, $20 million. This should be seen as a baseline for Millsap's value, but give the uncertainties of the future market, it may be a reasonable starting place for assessing the value of a productive big man off the bench who has shed the "too short" label.
Furthermore, if Utah does not show the ability to compete with the Lakers and Hornets this year and into the near future, it might make sense to preserve some financial flexibility. Finding a long term solution at shooting guard and center, as well as deciding which young players are worthy of long-term extensions, will require significant dollars.
What are the facts?
Here is what we have to work with at this point:
1) No one would be surprised if Boozer left: Any Google search for "carlos boozer miami" will net an interesting assortment of rumors and innuendo. But it should be noted that Boozer lives in Florida, likely wants to be closer to his family given the illness that befell his young child, and had little trouble leaving Cleveland in 2004 (amid conflicting reports). Leaving aside the troublesome aspects of the rumor mill, I think its clear that Boozer is someone very interesting in being around his family and making a lot of money. You can draw your own conclusion...
2) Utah does not want to pay luxury tax: Larry Miller is noted as one the league's most involved, and outspoken, owners. His position on the luxury tax (part the soft cap apparatus designed to discourage outrageous spending while permitting teams to make the moves they feel necessary, albeit at a price) has been clear for several years. He does not want to pay, and does not think he can, given the nature of the SLC market. The recent max contract extension for Deron Williams precludes Utah from offering max or near-max money to Boozer without serious roster re-construction.
3) Millsap has been good: While starting for Boozer, Millsap has caught national attention. Millsap was nurtured in Jerry Sloan's system, and Sloan has shown increasing confidence in Millsap with each passing year. Statistically, Millsap scores as efficiently as Boozer (applying TS% and eFG%), uses the ball less than Boozer (according to Usg%), hits the offensive boards as effectively as Boozer, and shuts down his opponents (according to 82games.com's calculation of opponent PER).
4) Millsap will be much cheaper than Boozer: Boozer will likely command a max extension (5 years, $90 million), especially as the top free agent prize in the underrated 2009 free agent market. However, Millsap can likely be had at a discount. He doesn't have Boozer's reputation as a cornerstone for a franchise. Also, teams interested in Millsap might save their money to pursue a bigger name in 2010. Finally, Utah will have the right to match any offers to Millsap. Jason Maxiell's recent extension was 4 years, $20 million. This should be seen as a baseline for Millsap's value, but give the uncertainties of the future market, it may be a reasonable starting place for assessing the value of a productive big man off the bench who has shed the "too short" label.
Furthermore, if Utah does not show the ability to compete with the Lakers and Hornets this year and into the near future, it might make sense to preserve some financial flexibility. Finding a long term solution at shooting guard and center, as well as deciding which young players are worthy of long-term extensions, will require significant dollars.
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