Is Millsap Ready for Primetime?

Watching Paul Millsap run up impressive totals starting in Carlos Boozer's stead, I've started to wonder: should the Jazz let Boozer walk when he becomes a free agent at the end of the year? Under this scenario, the Jazz would resign Millsap, who is himself a restricted free agent after the season.

What are the facts?

Here is what we have to work with at this point:

1) No one would be surprised if Boozer left: Any Google search for "carlos boozer miami" will net an interesting assortment of rumors and innuendo. But it should be noted that Boozer lives in Florida, likely wants to be closer to his family given the illness that befell his young child, and had little trouble leaving Cleveland in 2004 (amid conflicting reports). Leaving aside the troublesome aspects of the rumor mill, I think its clear that Boozer is someone very interesting in being around his family and making a lot of money. You can draw your own conclusion...

2) Utah does not want to pay luxury tax: Larry Miller is noted as one the league's most involved, and outspoken, owners. His position on the luxury tax (part the soft cap apparatus designed to discourage outrageous spending while permitting teams to make the moves they feel necessary, albeit at a price) has been clear for several years. He does not want to pay, and does not think he can, given the nature of the SLC market. The recent max contract extension for Deron Williams precludes Utah from offering max or near-max money to Boozer without serious roster re-construction.

3) Millsap has been good: While starting for Boozer, Millsap has caught national attention. Millsap was nurtured in Jerry Sloan's system, and Sloan has shown increasing confidence in Millsap with each passing year. Statistically, Millsap scores as efficiently as Boozer (applying TS% and eFG%), uses the ball less than Boozer (according to Usg%), hits the offensive boards as effectively as Boozer, and shuts down his opponents (according to 82games.com's calculation of opponent PER).

4) Millsap will be much cheaper than Boozer: Boozer will likely command a max extension (5 years, $90 million), especially as the top free agent prize in the underrated 2009 free agent market. However, Millsap can likely be had at a discount. He doesn't have Boozer's reputation as a cornerstone for a franchise. Also, teams interested in Millsap might save their money to pursue a bigger name in 2010. Finally, Utah will have the right to match any offers to Millsap. Jason Maxiell's recent extension was 4 years, $20 million. This should be seen as a baseline for Millsap's value, but give the uncertainties of the future market, it may be a reasonable starting place for assessing the value of a productive big man off the bench who has shed the "too short" label.

Furthermore, if Utah does not show the ability to compete with the Lakers and Hornets this year and into the near future, it might make sense to preserve some financial flexibility. Finding a long term solution at shooting guard and center, as well as deciding which young players are worthy of long-term extensions, will require significant dollars.