Pistons 2009 Free Agent Shopping List

While I delay Christmas shopping with my hard-earned student loan money till the last possible second, that doesn't stop me from spending other people's money long before it's even in their hands. In this edition of PHR, I will be spending Bill Davidson's money, acting as a shorter and paler Joe Dumars.

Why the Pistons are doomed in 2008-2009

I should first point out that the Pistons are in line to finish this season with home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Why the rush to ponder next season?

1) Boston and Cleveland look significantly better than Detroit. Both clubs are surpassing the Pistons (and everyone else) in scoring differential, which is quite telling of contenders and pretenders over long NBA seasons.

2) Allen Iverson is a winner, but just not on the court. As detailed on Wages of Wins, there is a telling pattern in AI's career, whereby teams struggle to met expectations with Iverson, and go on to exceed expectations once he is gone. Quickly glancing at the stats, Iverson is a classic case of too many shots going to an inefficient shooter. More damningly, Iverson holds onto the ball on offense like few others in the history of the game (you can track this statistically by looking at his Usg% on Basketball Reference, or you can just watch a Pistons game). Clearly, Dumars wanted Iverson for something more than his on-court play. . .

3) . . .which leads me to main point: Detroit's best chance to land a free agent could be 2009, not 2010. With the expiring contracts of AI and Rasheed Wallace, the Pistons can be as much as $20 million below the salary cap (using the $58 million figure for 2008-2009). Of course, they could save for the 2010 free agent bonanza, but they would have to get in line behind much more attractive destinations, like the New York Knicks, New Jersey Nets/Brooklyn JayZs, Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns. Its doubtful LeBron, Wade, Bosh or Amare would flock to the Motor City as a first or second choice. So, it might make more sense to strike in 2009, or better yet, make a move in both years.

Who could the Pistons add in 2009?

When he opts-out, Carlos Boozer will be highly sought after for his low post scoring and overall rugged play. However, the Pistons will likely be third in line behind his current team (Utah can pay him the most), and the Miami Heat (Boozer lives in Florida, which happens to have advantageous state income tax provisions).

A few more names to rule out would be Kobe Bryant (he won't exercise his termination option to move to Detroit), Ben Gordon (not a great fit) and Ron Artest (!). Dumars is high on Rodney Stuckey and Amir Johnson, both of whom are playing productive minutes early in their careers. With Stuckey and Johnson joining Tayshaun Prince and the recently extended Jason Maxiell and Richard Hamilton to form Detroit's future core, Detroit is likely looking to the frontcourt for free agent help.

I see three free agent "combo forwards" who fit the bill: Hedo Turkoglu, Lamar Odom and Shawn Marion.

Marion is a nifty player who appears to be entering the decline phase of his career (he's 31 come may). Dumars is not likely getting rid of older players merely to replace them with slightly younger players who rely primarily with their athleticism. Odom is bigger and younger (29), but possesses many of the same skills as Prince. This is not a deal-breaker, depending upon what the market for the ever-mercurial Odom is.

Of the 3 players, only Hedo actually seems to be improving. At 29, he is coming off his best statistical season, and has emerged as a focal point in Orlando's offense. Ignoring his slow start this year, Hedo has increased his offensive efficiency as he has taken on more offensive responsibility, evolving from a three-point specialist early in his career into an overall scorer in the past few years.

What's the offer?

Certainly, Turkoglu is not a max or near-max type of player. But he could be quite an asset teamed with Hamilton, Prince and Stuckey in a fluid offense of players all comfortable handling the ball, slashing to the basket, and hitting open shots, bringing in the beefier Maxiell from time to time to combat bigger lineups. Consider also that signing Hedo takes him away from a conference competitor, and signing the Turkish Delight to a substantial contract becomes a reasonable proposition.

A 4 year, 54 million dollar frontloaded deal (say, 15 million in 2009-10, 14 mil in 2010-11, 13 mil in 2011-12, and 12 mil in 2012-13) would effectively dare the Magic to go significantly into the luxury tax to resign Hedo (thanks to Otis Smith's questionable decision to pay Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis like franchise cornerstones), while minimizing the risk that the Pistons would pay for Hedo's decline years. Such a contract would allow for future free agent additions, or extensions for current and future rookie contracts.