Draft Preview: San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio Spurs (54-28) – Pick #37, 51, 53

Statistics

San Antonio’s ability to win 54 games with massive injuries in a tough Western Conference, and even tougher Southwest Division, is a testament to Coach Gregg Popovich’s tried-and-true style of basketball, and the immense talents of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to play at elite levels (when not injured themselves) on depleted teams.

Popovich’s system, centered around principals of man-to-man defense and motion offense with a thick playbook, produces interesting statistical extremes. On the positive side, no team had fewer three-pointers shot against them, committed fewer fouls, gave up fewer free throw attempts, or allowed fewer offensive rebounds. This shows a disciplined, responsible defensive unit, such that fantasy stats like steals and blocks seem unimportant (the Spurs were dead last in steals, 27^th in blocks).

On offense, the high efficiency of Duncan and Parker made up for the many lesser role players on the Spurs selected more for their defensive experience and intelligence than any offensive skills. The team notably finished 5^th in eFG% (which consolidates 2 and 3-point shots), a level of offensive efficiency further aided by a league-low turnover total. However, the intermittent absence of the Big Three showed, as San Antonio grabbed fewer offense rebounds with Duncan not looking right for most of the second half of the season, and shot fewer free throws than any other team with Ginobili playing only 44 games and Parker opting for more jumpers than at earlier times in his career.

Draft History

No team’s core is more completely constructed through the draft than the Spurs. Each of the Big Three were draft picks, as were reserve guard George Hill, project center Ian Mahinmi, and European star (and hopefully future Spur) Tiago Splitter. Former Spurs draftees Beno Udrih and Luis Scola round out an impressive scouting of international talent, such that it seems very likely that the Spurs picks will go foreign again this year. When Popovich and GM R.C. Buford do draft domestic, they typically go for experience. Duncan, Hill, Romain Sato and John Salmons were all four-year collegians.

Salary Cap

At just a shade under $66M going into next year, the Spurs have no chance at getting under the cap, but could add an interesting veteran or two and stay below the luxury tax. The Big Three cost over $45M alone, and some writers have began to wonder if the Spurs are getting enough bang for their buck, or if one (likely Ginobili) might be traded for young talent and cap space.

This would not be quite the issue if the decaying corpses of Kurt Thomas, Fab Oberto, Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley weren’t occupying so much room (Finley has an option to play next year that he is likely to exercise). At least Matt Bonner, Roger Mason and Hill provided a spark through the early season, though all three faded offensively as the season wore on. With the top nine players by minutes played under contract, the Spurs have no pressing free agents to sign, as Jacque Vaughn and Ime Udoka are quite replaceable, even for a picky guy like Popovich.

Team Composition

Given the team’s advanced age, and the need to relieve veterans of previous championship runs of their duties, an injection of some youth around the Big Three seems likely. Around Duncan, Ginobili and Parker, Popvich requires basically three types of role players.

One type are bigs who are strong enough to match-up with the best opposing big man, relieving Duncan of additional wear-and-tear, then basically getting out of the way on offense, standing ready to hit open jumpers at the edge of their range to give Duncan do his “Big Fundamental” thing in the post. Popovich also like wing players who play gritty man defense and can hit open shots from the perimeter. Last, Pop likes point guards who can efficiently operate his complex offense while defusing the opposition’s offense. Pop is most demanding on the last type, and has run through many promising guards (most notably, Udrih and Devin Brown) who were not up to snuff.

Prediction

The Spurs will take three players, and at least one of them will become a solid NBA starter. Who they are is a great question; I have my eye on forward Jeff Pendergraph from Arizona State (tough and smart) and point guard Darren Collison from UCLA (if he slips) for #37. European possibilities for the later picks would be center Vitor Faverani from Brazil and wing Christian Eyenga from Congo (both physical specimens who could develop for several years abroad).

Draft Preview: Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets (54-28) – Pick #34

Statistics

The Chauncey Billups-Allen Iverson turned the Nuggets from a disorganized mass of untapped potential into a physical force to be reckoned with, even in a game played by freaks of nature. The Nuggets slowed their pace from the Iverson years, running even with the Lakers instead of the D’Antonis. This led to a top 5 FG%, and interestingly, the league lead in free throw attempts.

On defense, George Karl’s return to a more stout defensive philosophy occurred (coincidentally?) with the arrival of big guards (Billups, Dahntay Jones) and athletic big men (Chris Andersen via free agency, Nene and Kenyon Martin from the injured list). As a result, Denver posted a top 5 FG% against opponents, and top 3 steals and blocks totals. Disappointingly, all the bigger players did not help much on the glass: Denver ranked middle of the pack on the offensive glass (which certainly does not correspond with what my eyes told me) and among the league’s worst on the defensive glass (more understandable, given that steals and blocks take defenders out of position).

Draft History

Much of GM Mark Warkentien’s time has been devoted to cleaning up the mess Kiki Vandeweghe left, including the awful trade for Kenyon Martin that resulted in the loss of multiple draft picks, several seasons lost to Martin’s injuries, and perhaps the last seven year contract in NBA history (for $91M!). Cleaning up messes like that requires ignoring some elements of roster-building, and the Nuggets have apparently decided that the draft is not worth their time. To date, the only pick Warkentien has made was Leon Powe in 2006; Powe was immediately traded to Boston for a future pick. The only non-lottery selection on the Nuggets roster is Linas Kleiza, who was acquired via draft day trade.

Salary Cap

As with most contenders, the Nuggets are over the salary cap, and up against the luxury tax going into next year. Owner Stan Kroenke’s free-spending days seem to be over, though the Nuggets’ playoff success may persuade him to wade nervously into the luxury tax to keep the team together. The trade of Marcus Camby last offseason and the buyout of Antonio McDyess this season help the financial situation, but the additional years of Billups’ contract mostly negate those savings. The Nuggets salary commitments for next year are slightly less than $69M, placing them right about where some pundits think the luxury tax will shrink to for 2009-2010.

Denver is facing the free agency of key role players Anderson, Anthony Carter, Jones and Kleiza. Of the three, Anderson is likely to be the most difficult to re-sign, and may require a long-term contract, which would represent another significant risk for a team that has weathered multiple risks gone awry with Nene and Martin. Andersen is on double-secret probation as a result of previous drug suspensions, and would likely be banned for life upon any future positive tests.

Team Composition

On the bright side, the stout contracts of Anthony, Billups, Nene, Martin and JR Smith ensure a decent core for the next three years. Also under contract for next year are bench projects Steven Hunter, Renaldo Balkman and Sonny Weems, all of whom could be traded to a team with cap space for cap relief, or alternatively, to a cap-strapped team looking to get out from under a longer contract. For insteance, Hunter's expiring contract matches up nicely with several serviceable point guards, like Charlie Bell and Keyon Dooling. The advanced age of Billups and Kenyon Martin’s knees may incline the Nuggets to look to the draft for a potential replacement with higher upside, rather than a plug-and-play amateur with lower potential. Given the success the Nuggets had signing Jones and Andersen to make-good minimum contracts, the Nuggets will likely try to fill their bench this way, rather than via the draft.

Prediction

The Nuggets pick is in the second round, meaning any pick does not have a guaranteed contract, a big consideration for a team eyeing the bottom line. High upside talents projected in that range include forward Omri Casspi from Israel and point guard Patrick Mills from St. Mary’s.

Draft Preview: Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic (59-23) – No picks currently

Statistics

Orlando followed an interesting statistical path to the NBA Finals this year. The improved offense was largely a result of deadly three-point shooting. Orlando shot accurately (38%, well within the NBA’s top 10 teams) and a lot (attempting over 400 more shots from behind the arc than any team not named the New York Knicks).

Despite Orlando’s athleticism, they played at a pace only slightly above the league average. Even stranger was that a team with Dwight Howard finished 28^th in offensive rebound %. This is less surprising when you consider that this stat is likely a reflection of all the long rebounds that come off of missed threes. Howard’s abysmal free throw shooting negated any advantage that Magic’s 2253 free throw attempts (4^th best in the NBA) merited.

While on the subject of Howard, his defensive presence showed most clearly on the defensive boards, where Orlando was in the top 3, both by total and by percentage. While Orlando did not force many turnovers, its ability to keep opponents from shooting a high percentage rivaled that of fellow contenders LA, Denver, Cleveland and Boston.

Draft History

GM Otis Smith has built the current roster through an mix of the draft, free agency and trades. Moving beyond the obvious selection of Howard, Smith has an uneven draft history, netting key contributors like Jameer Nelson, Marcin Gortat and Courtney Lee outside of the lottery, but blowing picks on one-dimensional shooters like Travis Diener, JJ Redick and Brad Newley. Given the team’s design – surround Howard with effective shooters and ball-handlers – it wouldn’t be surprising to see Smith go that route again.

Salary Cap

Much ink has been spilt over Smith’s decision to sign Rashard Lewis to a maximum $118M contract extension after trading for him from the Sonics, especially in light of the Magic’s expected efforts to resign Hedo Turkoglu. Orlando is likely to be over the projected salary cap and luxury tax for 2009-10, with salaries of just over $70M.

While Orlando’s upper management has pledged to go into the luxury tax if necessary, it appears they would like to dip their toes in rather than take a full-on dive into tax payments. Lewis, Howard and Nelson combine for approx. $40M of Orlando’s contract commitments next year. While Michael Pietrus, Anthony Johnson and Lee all have manageable salaries for their production, there are several players Orlando may attempt to trade without taking back equal salary. They include veteran forward Tony Battie ($6.3M next year), disgruntled guard Rafer Alston ($5.3M next year), and the improved, but still one-dimensional Redick ($2.8M next year).

Without a pick this year to sweeten any potential trade, Orlando may have to include the inexpensive and effective Lee to appropriately bait teams into a trade to dump salary. A less-pondered idea is offering buyouts to Alston and Redick – both of whom have clamored for more playing time – at significant discounts to their current salaries, in essence granting them early free agency. Gortat is all but out the door, as he played well enough backing up Howard to be too rich to re-sign as an unrestricted free agent.

Team Composition

Orlando has 4/5 of its starting lineup from last year (Nelson, Pietrus, Lewis, Howard) under contract, as well as two injury starters (Alston, Lee), and reserves Johnson, Redick and Battie. Turkoglu’s expanded role as primary ballhandler and prime offensive option late in games makes his loss equivalent to the loss of multiple players. Given the Magic’s depth at guard and wing positions, they could afford to lose from their surplus without a negative effect, although the injury-prone Pietrus and Nelson could deplete this depth at inopportune times during the season, as they did this past year. The loss of Gortat would place a burden on Howard to stay out of foul trouble, with only the brittle Battie on the bench to serviceably man the post.

Prediction

Given the money crunch in Orlando, it is unlikely that Smith will trade into the draft. If Smith does get a pick, he may try to replicate his late second-round success with Gortat by asking a team to select Ukrainian big man Slava Kravtsov (athletic like Gortat) or Slovenian prospect Gaspar Vidmar (physical like Gortat, as if someone named Gaspar Vidmar would be anything but a bruiser).

Draft Preview: Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics (62-20) – Pick # 58

Statistics

For the first half of the 2008-09 season, the Celtics were cruising through the NBA with the same formula with which they won the title the previous year: stout defense that forced turnovers and poor shot selection mixed with a offense geared to maximize the star talents of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, and the various shooters that surrounded them (most notably, third amigo Ray Allen). On the year, the Celtics finished well in most defensive categories, tying for most stingy opponents’ FG% (43.1%) and grabbing over 75% of possible defensive rebounds (third in the league behind Orlando and San Antonio). A closer look at the stats shows that upon Garnett’s injury in February, the Celtics played at a quicker tempo, likely a reflection of Rondo’s increased role in the offense. The tempo superficially increased the team’s offensive production, but Garnett’s absence decreased efficiency, and put the ball in Rondo’s turnover-prone hands more often. More importantly, the defense grew less stingy, with a noticeable drop in turnovers and increase in two-point attempts as compared to threes. The last point is important, given that Boston ranked high in preventing threes (34.9%, with the league average standing at 36.7%).

Draft History

Danny Ainge endured a period of heavy criticism in Boston for his tendency to draft highly talented but risky players – often out of high school – to stock a floundering franchise seeking to restore its past glory, Ainge has recently righted the Celtics ship and restored his reputation as a GM somewhat. His strategy of drafting high-risk, high-reward talent has paid off, although it will have to be adjusted somewhat to the new reality that the Celtics will be drafting far from the lottery. Some of his draft picks (Al Jefferson, Delonte West) were cashed in by Ainge for veteran talent, while others (Kendrick Perkins, Rondo) have found important roles supporting the Big Three. Ainge's dice-rolling is not likely to change in the near future, as the Celtics will be very likely to approach the draft looking for the best overall talent. Unlike other contenders, like the Lakers, Magic, Cavs and Nuggets, the Celtics core is aging and likely past its peak.

Salary Cap

The Big Three represented a sizable risk by the Celtics brass, insofar as the team will shell out almost $56M for their services next year. For perspective, that is more than the projected salary cap for 2009-2010. While owner Wyc Grousbeck has stated his intention to pay the luxury tax to keep the Celtics together, the Celtics are already facing the tax without any calculation of the impending free agency of key reserves Glen Davis and Eddie House (and technically, injured forward Leon Powe), all of whom could be seeking significant “championship” bonuses, like the one James Posey received when New Orleans signed him to a ill-advised contract last off-season. Given this situation, it seems unlikely for the Celtics to trade into the first round, unless it is part of a larger move to shed salary.

Team Composition

The Celtics starting 5 of Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett and Perkins are all signed for next year, as are role players Brian Scalabrine and Tony Allen, prospects J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker). Since the league is full of journeyman shooters and post players, it is likely that the Celtics will fill any free agent defections with their own free agent signings. Boston’s commitment to young players is complicated at times. Despite boasting a championship roster with four rotation players (Davis, Rondo, Perkins, Powe) under 25 years old, with Rondo and Perkins starting, there has been definite friction between young and old in Boston. The most notable episodes are the fractious relationship between coach Doc Rivers and Rondo (currently, Rondo is rumored to be trade bait), and the televised fallout between Garnett and Davis. In summary, young players will play in Boston, but better have some thick skin, or practice Kendrick Perkins’ trademark snarl.

Prediction

The Celtics will likely take a flyer on a high upside talent with their 58^th pick. The possibilities at the end of the draft are endless, but a few names that fit the bill are Dionte Christmas from Temple (another shooter) and Garret Siler from Augusta St. (Ainge did try to get Robert Swift before the Sonics drafted him, and signed bust Patrick O’Bryant after Golden State had given up on him, so he is definitely intrigued by large humans).

Draft Preview: LA Lakers

Los Angeles Lakers (65-17) – Pick #29, 42, 59

Statistics

Anointed the team to beat once Kevin Garnett and the Celtics’ dream season fell apart, the Lakers’ numbers back up the hype. They are an offensive juggernaut that is both balanced (ranking in the top 10 of nearly every meaningful category) and entertaining (their pace ranked in the league’s top 5). LA was merely middle of the road in threes attempted and made, which is likely explained by the team’s avoidance of the drive-and-dish style that is currently in vogue, which limits open shots for shooters with their feet set. The Lakers look like a good defensive team, filled with long athletes like Kobe Bryant, Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom who filled the stat sheets with steals and blocks. Even though the Lakers were below average in defensive rebounding percentage, most of the mainstream media’s portrayal of defensive lapses were merely symptoms of the Lakers’ enhanced pace.

Draft History

Much-maligned GM Mitch Kupchak has presided over the complete makeover of a Shaq and Kobe dynasty into a Kobe and Co. title winner. While the influence of various other actors (Jerry West, Phil Jackson, various members of the Buss family) makes it difficult to discern what decisions the GM actually made, it is possible to chart an organizational draft strategy. The Lakers typically choose larger, multi-dimensional guards (Javaris Crittendon, Sun Yue, Sasha Vujacic) and big men with skills over strength (Luke Walton, Andrew Bynum, Brian Cook), though they will move outside of these profiles to draft hyper-athletic players (the speedy, jump-out-of-the-jump Jordan Farmar, the burly Rony Turiaf). Going back to the West era, a substantial core of the current Lakers is home-grown (Derek Fisher, Bryant, Bynum, and to a lesser extent, Walton, Vujacic and Farmar).

Salary Cap

Assuming Kobe Bryant exercises his $23M option to defend his title in LA, the Lakers will be far over the salary cap and luxury tax. With key free agents Odom and Ariza to resign, the Lakers will not seek to pay double for a rookie (guaranteed dollars and the dollar-for-dollar luxury tax). This is especially true given their relatively youthful bench, full of project big men (Bynum, Josh Powell, DJ Mbenga) and intriguing young guards (Vujacic, Farmer, Yue, Shannon Brown). The team may seek to dump one or all of the picks to a rebuilding, under-the-cap team as a means of shedding Adam Morrison’s contract (Walton and Vujacic are also candidates for this treatment, give the rise in playing time given to Ariza and Brown).

Team Composition

Bryant, Gasol, Bynum and Fisher are under contract next year, assuming Kobe returns. Farmar, Morrison, Vujacic and Walton all return with contracts that exceed their contribution. With a young bench in place, the Lakers brain trust must decide whether any of them can replace Odom and Ariza, and if so, whether they can replace one or both. Given Odom’s mercurial career and desire to stated desire to stay in California, he may be easier to resign. If he or Ariza get away, the Lakers will be in the market for forward help.

Prediction

Anticipating that the Lakers make every effort to keep their championship core together (in order to appease Kobe and keep him from becoming a free agent), the Lakers will likely not draft anyone who will count on their payroll next year. Combo forwards that might help defray the loss of Odom or Ariza do not exist at the Lakers’ current selections.

Draft Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers (66-16) – Pick #30, #46

Statistics

A quick look at the stats shows why the Cavs were so successful this past season. A combination of a highly effective offense with tough defense is difficult to beat. Looking in a little more depth, the Cavs’ efficiency stemmed from playing their offense through one of the league’s most efficient players, Lebron James, allowing the team to make more field goals (including a lot of threes) and turn the ball over less than their opponents. The Cavs’ precise sets on both ends helped to create one of the league’s slowest paces (25^th to be exact), which allowed the Cavs to get back into their defensive sets effectively, and forced their opponents to shoot a league-worst 43.1% for the season. The aging of the team’s big men showed in a middle of the road offensive rebounding performance, even after it is adjusted for the Cavs’ efficient shooting. The team also was middle of the pack in steals and turnovers forced, which seems to be more of a result of the Cavs’ commitment to a stricter, less gambling defense than any deficiency.

Draft History

Through four years at the helm, GM Danny Ferry has done little to improve his team through the draft. Most of that ineffectiveness is due to circumstances outside of his control, like his team’s impressive record and picks traded before he took over. When he has drafted, Ferry has tended to go with the best talent available. Examples of this strategy include the selection of Daniel Gibson and Shannon Brown in 2006, and JJ Hickson in 2008. All were highly regarded collegiate players whose decision to leave early was thought to be questionable. More importantly, all three have been useful role players in their young careers; Gibson was a key compliment to the Cavs’ playoff run in 2007, Hickson was solid in limited minutes as a rookie in 2008-09, and Brown has emerged as a backup with the Lakers. In the later second round, Ferry has not been shy selecting projects (Martynas Andriuskevicius via trade in 2005, Ejike Ugboaja in 2006).

Salary Cap

Absent a shocking rise in the salary cap (going against league warnings to the contrary in the bum economy), the Cavs will be over the cap. The Cavs may be under the luxury tax – estimated in the high $60M – if Anderson Varejao declines his $6.2M option (Zydrunas Ilguaskas is unlikely to decline his $11.5M option), but only by a few million. While owner Dan Gilbert has given the green light to his management staff to go into tax territory in order to win a championship, it seems doubtful that a rookie will be available in the late first round or second round that significantly helps in this task. Given the urgency of the Cavs’ desire, and the league-wide belt-tightening in anticipation of a lowered cap and tax, it appears that better value could be had signing experienced players to the veterans’ minimum than signing draft picks at comparable prices.

Team Composition

The team’s starting five – Maurice Williams, Delonte West, James, Varejao, Ilgauskas – are all under contract for next year if Varejao and Big Z exercise their options. Also on the payroll are reserves Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic and Gibson, as well as Hickson and Darnell Jackson, another rookie. As mentioned before, Brown’s willingness to play Gibson and Hickson early in their careers means a draftee would not necessarily be relegated to towel-waving status. As it stands, the Cavs could benefit from adding an athletic wing player with size, the type the Orlando Magic seem have in spades. If Hickson is slowed by his season ending back injury, or Varejao is lost in free agency, another power player may be interesting. However, Cleveland has imported big men at the trade deadline in several of the past seasons, echoing a league-wide preference to go for experienced bigs when chasing a title.

Prediction

If the Cavs keep the 30^th pick, a swingman with good length and a decent three point shot, like Chase Budinger from Arizona or Danny Green from North Carolina, makes sense. Of course, I could see the Cavs drafting European projects with both picks to defer the future and guaranteed contracts. Perhaps more likely, one or both of the picks will be included in a trade for Shaquille O’Neal, Michael Redd, or other veteran NBA player.