Draft Preview: Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics (62-20) – Pick # 58

Statistics

For the first half of the 2008-09 season, the Celtics were cruising through the NBA with the same formula with which they won the title the previous year: stout defense that forced turnovers and poor shot selection mixed with a offense geared to maximize the star talents of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, and the various shooters that surrounded them (most notably, third amigo Ray Allen). On the year, the Celtics finished well in most defensive categories, tying for most stingy opponents’ FG% (43.1%) and grabbing over 75% of possible defensive rebounds (third in the league behind Orlando and San Antonio). A closer look at the stats shows that upon Garnett’s injury in February, the Celtics played at a quicker tempo, likely a reflection of Rondo’s increased role in the offense. The tempo superficially increased the team’s offensive production, but Garnett’s absence decreased efficiency, and put the ball in Rondo’s turnover-prone hands more often. More importantly, the defense grew less stingy, with a noticeable drop in turnovers and increase in two-point attempts as compared to threes. The last point is important, given that Boston ranked high in preventing threes (34.9%, with the league average standing at 36.7%).

Draft History

Danny Ainge endured a period of heavy criticism in Boston for his tendency to draft highly talented but risky players – often out of high school – to stock a floundering franchise seeking to restore its past glory, Ainge has recently righted the Celtics ship and restored his reputation as a GM somewhat. His strategy of drafting high-risk, high-reward talent has paid off, although it will have to be adjusted somewhat to the new reality that the Celtics will be drafting far from the lottery. Some of his draft picks (Al Jefferson, Delonte West) were cashed in by Ainge for veteran talent, while others (Kendrick Perkins, Rondo) have found important roles supporting the Big Three. Ainge's dice-rolling is not likely to change in the near future, as the Celtics will be very likely to approach the draft looking for the best overall talent. Unlike other contenders, like the Lakers, Magic, Cavs and Nuggets, the Celtics core is aging and likely past its peak.

Salary Cap

The Big Three represented a sizable risk by the Celtics brass, insofar as the team will shell out almost $56M for their services next year. For perspective, that is more than the projected salary cap for 2009-2010. While owner Wyc Grousbeck has stated his intention to pay the luxury tax to keep the Celtics together, the Celtics are already facing the tax without any calculation of the impending free agency of key reserves Glen Davis and Eddie House (and technically, injured forward Leon Powe), all of whom could be seeking significant “championship” bonuses, like the one James Posey received when New Orleans signed him to a ill-advised contract last off-season. Given this situation, it seems unlikely for the Celtics to trade into the first round, unless it is part of a larger move to shed salary.

Team Composition

The Celtics starting 5 of Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett and Perkins are all signed for next year, as are role players Brian Scalabrine and Tony Allen, prospects J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker). Since the league is full of journeyman shooters and post players, it is likely that the Celtics will fill any free agent defections with their own free agent signings. Boston’s commitment to young players is complicated at times. Despite boasting a championship roster with four rotation players (Davis, Rondo, Perkins, Powe) under 25 years old, with Rondo and Perkins starting, there has been definite friction between young and old in Boston. The most notable episodes are the fractious relationship between coach Doc Rivers and Rondo (currently, Rondo is rumored to be trade bait), and the televised fallout between Garnett and Davis. In summary, young players will play in Boston, but better have some thick skin, or practice Kendrick Perkins’ trademark snarl.

Prediction

The Celtics will likely take a flyer on a high upside talent with their 58^th pick. The possibilities at the end of the draft are endless, but a few names that fit the bill are Dionte Christmas from Temple (another shooter) and Garret Siler from Augusta St. (Ainge did try to get Robert Swift before the Sonics drafted him, and signed bust Patrick O’Bryant after Golden State had given up on him, so he is definitely intrigued by large humans).