A quick look at the stats shows why the Cavs were so successful this past season. A combination of a highly effective offense with tough defense is difficult to beat. Looking in a little more depth, the Cavs’ efficiency stemmed from playing their offense through one of the league’s most efficient players, Lebron James, allowing the team to make more field goals (including a lot of threes) and turn the ball over less than their opponents. The Cavs’ precise sets on both ends helped to create one of the league’s slowest paces (25th to be exact), which allowed the Cavs to get back into their defensive sets effectively, and forced their opponents to shoot a league-worst 43.1% for the season. The aging of the team’s big men showed in a middle of the road offensive rebounding performance, even after it is adjusted for the Cavs’ efficient shooting. The team also was middle of the pack in steals and turnovers forced, which seems to be more of a result of the Cavs’ commitment to a stricter, less gambling defense than any deficiency.
Draft History
Through four years at the helm, GM Danny Ferry has done little to improve his team through the draft. Most of that ineffectiveness is due to circumstances outside of his control, like his team’s impressive record and picks traded before he took over. When he has drafted, Ferry has tended to go with the best talent available. Examples of this strategy include the selection of Daniel Gibson and Shannon Brown in 2006, and JJ Hickson in 2008. All were highly regarded collegiate players whose decision to leave early was thought to be questionable. More importantly, all three have been useful role players in their young careers; Gibson was a key compliment to the Cavs’ playoff run in 2007, Hickson was solid in limited minutes as a rookie in 2008-09, and Brown has emerged as a backup with the Lakers. In the later second round, Ferry has not been shy selecting projects (Martynas Andriuskevicius via trade in 2005, Ejike Ugboaja in 2006).
Salary Cap
Absent a shocking rise in the salary cap (going against league warnings to the contrary in the bum economy), the Cavs will be over the cap. The Cavs may be under the luxury tax – estimated in the high $60M – if Anderson Varejao declines his $6.2M option (Zydrunas Ilguaskas is unlikely to decline his $11.5M option), but only by a few million. While owner Dan Gilbert has given the green light to his management staff to go into tax territory in order to win a championship, it seems doubtful that a rookie will be available in the late first round or second round that significantly helps in this task. Given the urgency of the Cavs’ desire, and the league-wide belt-tightening in anticipation of a lowered cap and tax, it appears that better value could be had signing experienced players to the veterans’ minimum than signing draft picks at comparable prices.
Team Composition
The team’s starting five – Maurice Williams, Delonte West, James, Varejao, Ilgauskas – are all under contract for next year if Varejao and Big Z exercise their options. Also on the payroll are reserves Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic and Gibson, as well as Hickson and Darnell Jackson, another rookie. As mentioned before, Brown’s willingness to play Gibson and Hickson early in their careers means a draftee would not necessarily be relegated to towel-waving status. As it stands, the Cavs could benefit from adding an athletic wing player with size, the type the Orlando Magic seem have in spades. If Hickson is slowed by his season ending back injury, or Varejao is lost in free agency, another power player may be interesting. However,
Prediction
If the Cavs keep the 30th pick, a swingman with good length and a decent three point shot, like Chase Budinger from
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