Draft Preview: Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets (54-28) – Pick #34

Statistics

The Chauncey Billups-Allen Iverson turned the Nuggets from a disorganized mass of untapped potential into a physical force to be reckoned with, even in a game played by freaks of nature. The Nuggets slowed their pace from the Iverson years, running even with the Lakers instead of the D’Antonis. This led to a top 5 FG%, and interestingly, the league lead in free throw attempts.

On defense, George Karl’s return to a more stout defensive philosophy occurred (coincidentally?) with the arrival of big guards (Billups, Dahntay Jones) and athletic big men (Chris Andersen via free agency, Nene and Kenyon Martin from the injured list). As a result, Denver posted a top 5 FG% against opponents, and top 3 steals and blocks totals. Disappointingly, all the bigger players did not help much on the glass: Denver ranked middle of the pack on the offensive glass (which certainly does not correspond with what my eyes told me) and among the league’s worst on the defensive glass (more understandable, given that steals and blocks take defenders out of position).

Draft History

Much of GM Mark Warkentien’s time has been devoted to cleaning up the mess Kiki Vandeweghe left, including the awful trade for Kenyon Martin that resulted in the loss of multiple draft picks, several seasons lost to Martin’s injuries, and perhaps the last seven year contract in NBA history (for $91M!). Cleaning up messes like that requires ignoring some elements of roster-building, and the Nuggets have apparently decided that the draft is not worth their time. To date, the only pick Warkentien has made was Leon Powe in 2006; Powe was immediately traded to Boston for a future pick. The only non-lottery selection on the Nuggets roster is Linas Kleiza, who was acquired via draft day trade.

Salary Cap

As with most contenders, the Nuggets are over the salary cap, and up against the luxury tax going into next year. Owner Stan Kroenke’s free-spending days seem to be over, though the Nuggets’ playoff success may persuade him to wade nervously into the luxury tax to keep the team together. The trade of Marcus Camby last offseason and the buyout of Antonio McDyess this season help the financial situation, but the additional years of Billups’ contract mostly negate those savings. The Nuggets salary commitments for next year are slightly less than $69M, placing them right about where some pundits think the luxury tax will shrink to for 2009-2010.

Denver is facing the free agency of key role players Anderson, Anthony Carter, Jones and Kleiza. Of the three, Anderson is likely to be the most difficult to re-sign, and may require a long-term contract, which would represent another significant risk for a team that has weathered multiple risks gone awry with Nene and Martin. Andersen is on double-secret probation as a result of previous drug suspensions, and would likely be banned for life upon any future positive tests.

Team Composition

On the bright side, the stout contracts of Anthony, Billups, Nene, Martin and JR Smith ensure a decent core for the next three years. Also under contract for next year are bench projects Steven Hunter, Renaldo Balkman and Sonny Weems, all of whom could be traded to a team with cap space for cap relief, or alternatively, to a cap-strapped team looking to get out from under a longer contract. For insteance, Hunter's expiring contract matches up nicely with several serviceable point guards, like Charlie Bell and Keyon Dooling. The advanced age of Billups and Kenyon Martin’s knees may incline the Nuggets to look to the draft for a potential replacement with higher upside, rather than a plug-and-play amateur with lower potential. Given the success the Nuggets had signing Jones and Andersen to make-good minimum contracts, the Nuggets will likely try to fill their bench this way, rather than via the draft.

Prediction

The Nuggets pick is in the second round, meaning any pick does not have a guaranteed contract, a big consideration for a team eyeing the bottom line. High upside talents projected in that range include forward Omri Casspi from Israel and point guard Patrick Mills from St. Mary’s.