Draft Preview: LA Lakers

Los Angeles Lakers (65-17) – Pick #29, 42, 59

Statistics

Anointed the team to beat once Kevin Garnett and the Celtics’ dream season fell apart, the Lakers’ numbers back up the hype. They are an offensive juggernaut that is both balanced (ranking in the top 10 of nearly every meaningful category) and entertaining (their pace ranked in the league’s top 5). LA was merely middle of the road in threes attempted and made, which is likely explained by the team’s avoidance of the drive-and-dish style that is currently in vogue, which limits open shots for shooters with their feet set. The Lakers look like a good defensive team, filled with long athletes like Kobe Bryant, Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom who filled the stat sheets with steals and blocks. Even though the Lakers were below average in defensive rebounding percentage, most of the mainstream media’s portrayal of defensive lapses were merely symptoms of the Lakers’ enhanced pace.

Draft History

Much-maligned GM Mitch Kupchak has presided over the complete makeover of a Shaq and Kobe dynasty into a Kobe and Co. title winner. While the influence of various other actors (Jerry West, Phil Jackson, various members of the Buss family) makes it difficult to discern what decisions the GM actually made, it is possible to chart an organizational draft strategy. The Lakers typically choose larger, multi-dimensional guards (Javaris Crittendon, Sun Yue, Sasha Vujacic) and big men with skills over strength (Luke Walton, Andrew Bynum, Brian Cook), though they will move outside of these profiles to draft hyper-athletic players (the speedy, jump-out-of-the-jump Jordan Farmar, the burly Rony Turiaf). Going back to the West era, a substantial core of the current Lakers is home-grown (Derek Fisher, Bryant, Bynum, and to a lesser extent, Walton, Vujacic and Farmar).

Salary Cap

Assuming Kobe Bryant exercises his $23M option to defend his title in LA, the Lakers will be far over the salary cap and luxury tax. With key free agents Odom and Ariza to resign, the Lakers will not seek to pay double for a rookie (guaranteed dollars and the dollar-for-dollar luxury tax). This is especially true given their relatively youthful bench, full of project big men (Bynum, Josh Powell, DJ Mbenga) and intriguing young guards (Vujacic, Farmer, Yue, Shannon Brown). The team may seek to dump one or all of the picks to a rebuilding, under-the-cap team as a means of shedding Adam Morrison’s contract (Walton and Vujacic are also candidates for this treatment, give the rise in playing time given to Ariza and Brown).

Team Composition

Bryant, Gasol, Bynum and Fisher are under contract next year, assuming Kobe returns. Farmar, Morrison, Vujacic and Walton all return with contracts that exceed their contribution. With a young bench in place, the Lakers brain trust must decide whether any of them can replace Odom and Ariza, and if so, whether they can replace one or both. Given Odom’s mercurial career and desire to stated desire to stay in California, he may be easier to resign. If he or Ariza get away, the Lakers will be in the market for forward help.

Prediction

Anticipating that the Lakers make every effort to keep their championship core together (in order to appease Kobe and keep him from becoming a free agent), the Lakers will likely not draft anyone who will count on their payroll next year. Combo forwards that might help defray the loss of Odom or Ariza do not exist at the Lakers’ current selections.