Draft Preview: Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic (59-23) – No picks currently

Statistics

Orlando followed an interesting statistical path to the NBA Finals this year. The improved offense was largely a result of deadly three-point shooting. Orlando shot accurately (38%, well within the NBA’s top 10 teams) and a lot (attempting over 400 more shots from behind the arc than any team not named the New York Knicks).

Despite Orlando’s athleticism, they played at a pace only slightly above the league average. Even stranger was that a team with Dwight Howard finished 28^th in offensive rebound %. This is less surprising when you consider that this stat is likely a reflection of all the long rebounds that come off of missed threes. Howard’s abysmal free throw shooting negated any advantage that Magic’s 2253 free throw attempts (4^th best in the NBA) merited.

While on the subject of Howard, his defensive presence showed most clearly on the defensive boards, where Orlando was in the top 3, both by total and by percentage. While Orlando did not force many turnovers, its ability to keep opponents from shooting a high percentage rivaled that of fellow contenders LA, Denver, Cleveland and Boston.

Draft History

GM Otis Smith has built the current roster through an mix of the draft, free agency and trades. Moving beyond the obvious selection of Howard, Smith has an uneven draft history, netting key contributors like Jameer Nelson, Marcin Gortat and Courtney Lee outside of the lottery, but blowing picks on one-dimensional shooters like Travis Diener, JJ Redick and Brad Newley. Given the team’s design – surround Howard with effective shooters and ball-handlers – it wouldn’t be surprising to see Smith go that route again.

Salary Cap

Much ink has been spilt over Smith’s decision to sign Rashard Lewis to a maximum $118M contract extension after trading for him from the Sonics, especially in light of the Magic’s expected efforts to resign Hedo Turkoglu. Orlando is likely to be over the projected salary cap and luxury tax for 2009-10, with salaries of just over $70M.

While Orlando’s upper management has pledged to go into the luxury tax if necessary, it appears they would like to dip their toes in rather than take a full-on dive into tax payments. Lewis, Howard and Nelson combine for approx. $40M of Orlando’s contract commitments next year. While Michael Pietrus, Anthony Johnson and Lee all have manageable salaries for their production, there are several players Orlando may attempt to trade without taking back equal salary. They include veteran forward Tony Battie ($6.3M next year), disgruntled guard Rafer Alston ($5.3M next year), and the improved, but still one-dimensional Redick ($2.8M next year).

Without a pick this year to sweeten any potential trade, Orlando may have to include the inexpensive and effective Lee to appropriately bait teams into a trade to dump salary. A less-pondered idea is offering buyouts to Alston and Redick – both of whom have clamored for more playing time – at significant discounts to their current salaries, in essence granting them early free agency. Gortat is all but out the door, as he played well enough backing up Howard to be too rich to re-sign as an unrestricted free agent.

Team Composition

Orlando has 4/5 of its starting lineup from last year (Nelson, Pietrus, Lewis, Howard) under contract, as well as two injury starters (Alston, Lee), and reserves Johnson, Redick and Battie. Turkoglu’s expanded role as primary ballhandler and prime offensive option late in games makes his loss equivalent to the loss of multiple players. Given the Magic’s depth at guard and wing positions, they could afford to lose from their surplus without a negative effect, although the injury-prone Pietrus and Nelson could deplete this depth at inopportune times during the season, as they did this past year. The loss of Gortat would place a burden on Howard to stay out of foul trouble, with only the brittle Battie on the bench to serviceably man the post.

Prediction

Given the money crunch in Orlando, it is unlikely that Smith will trade into the draft. If Smith does get a pick, he may try to replicate his late second-round success with Gortat by asking a team to select Ukrainian big man Slava Kravtsov (athletic like Gortat) or Slovenian prospect Gaspar Vidmar (physical like Gortat, as if someone named Gaspar Vidmar would be anything but a bruiser).