Draft Preview: San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio Spurs (54-28) – Pick #37, 51, 53

Statistics

San Antonio’s ability to win 54 games with massive injuries in a tough Western Conference, and even tougher Southwest Division, is a testament to Coach Gregg Popovich’s tried-and-true style of basketball, and the immense talents of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to play at elite levels (when not injured themselves) on depleted teams.

Popovich’s system, centered around principals of man-to-man defense and motion offense with a thick playbook, produces interesting statistical extremes. On the positive side, no team had fewer three-pointers shot against them, committed fewer fouls, gave up fewer free throw attempts, or allowed fewer offensive rebounds. This shows a disciplined, responsible defensive unit, such that fantasy stats like steals and blocks seem unimportant (the Spurs were dead last in steals, 27^th in blocks).

On offense, the high efficiency of Duncan and Parker made up for the many lesser role players on the Spurs selected more for their defensive experience and intelligence than any offensive skills. The team notably finished 5^th in eFG% (which consolidates 2 and 3-point shots), a level of offensive efficiency further aided by a league-low turnover total. However, the intermittent absence of the Big Three showed, as San Antonio grabbed fewer offense rebounds with Duncan not looking right for most of the second half of the season, and shot fewer free throws than any other team with Ginobili playing only 44 games and Parker opting for more jumpers than at earlier times in his career.

Draft History

No team’s core is more completely constructed through the draft than the Spurs. Each of the Big Three were draft picks, as were reserve guard George Hill, project center Ian Mahinmi, and European star (and hopefully future Spur) Tiago Splitter. Former Spurs draftees Beno Udrih and Luis Scola round out an impressive scouting of international talent, such that it seems very likely that the Spurs picks will go foreign again this year. When Popovich and GM R.C. Buford do draft domestic, they typically go for experience. Duncan, Hill, Romain Sato and John Salmons were all four-year collegians.

Salary Cap

At just a shade under $66M going into next year, the Spurs have no chance at getting under the cap, but could add an interesting veteran or two and stay below the luxury tax. The Big Three cost over $45M alone, and some writers have began to wonder if the Spurs are getting enough bang for their buck, or if one (likely Ginobili) might be traded for young talent and cap space.

This would not be quite the issue if the decaying corpses of Kurt Thomas, Fab Oberto, Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley weren’t occupying so much room (Finley has an option to play next year that he is likely to exercise). At least Matt Bonner, Roger Mason and Hill provided a spark through the early season, though all three faded offensively as the season wore on. With the top nine players by minutes played under contract, the Spurs have no pressing free agents to sign, as Jacque Vaughn and Ime Udoka are quite replaceable, even for a picky guy like Popovich.

Team Composition

Given the team’s advanced age, and the need to relieve veterans of previous championship runs of their duties, an injection of some youth around the Big Three seems likely. Around Duncan, Ginobili and Parker, Popvich requires basically three types of role players.

One type are bigs who are strong enough to match-up with the best opposing big man, relieving Duncan of additional wear-and-tear, then basically getting out of the way on offense, standing ready to hit open jumpers at the edge of their range to give Duncan do his “Big Fundamental” thing in the post. Popovich also like wing players who play gritty man defense and can hit open shots from the perimeter. Last, Pop likes point guards who can efficiently operate his complex offense while defusing the opposition’s offense. Pop is most demanding on the last type, and has run through many promising guards (most notably, Udrih and Devin Brown) who were not up to snuff.

Prediction

The Spurs will take three players, and at least one of them will become a solid NBA starter. Who they are is a great question; I have my eye on forward Jeff Pendergraph from Arizona State (tough and smart) and point guard Darren Collison from UCLA (if he slips) for #37. European possibilities for the later picks would be center Vitor Faverani from Brazil and wing Christian Eyenga from Congo (both physical specimens who could develop for several years abroad).