In Focus: Andre Iguodala

AI2 is officially on the trade market, less than 18 months after being largely credited with the demise of the “no superstars” Pistons dynasty. Now, people are questioning his viability as a legitimate first or second option, as well as the wisdom of a contract contract that will likely pay him $60 million over the next 4 1/2 seasons. Given the varied opinions of AI2, it's probably a good idea to see who he is, and what worries teams should have about him going forward.

Player Analysis

As a scorer, Iguodala has always been limited by a inconsistent shooting stroke that has yet to improve. His career 46% rate on field goals is bolstered by a high rate of “inside” dunks and layups. Unfortunately, the addition of the original "AI," and the health of Elton Brand have added two players with high possession usage rates. On a team with a slow pace like the Sixers, this leads to a possession squeeze amongst top players. AI2 has been forced outside in 2009-10, playing to his biggest weakness. To be effective, AI2 needs to be on a higher pace team that can take advantage of his athleticism and fast-break potential.

Such a move would also help Iggy’s turnover problems. His rate of almost 15% for his career is well above normal for the typical wing player. An above average career assist % (19.3) mitigates this issue somewhat, but the benefits of his passing are not enough to make it worth having Iguodala initiate the offense regularly. Much like Trevor Ariza, AI2 is a better finisher than a playmaker, and is best used in this role.

The most surprisingly attribute of AI2 is his meager career rebounding (3.4% on the offensive glass and 14.5% on the defensive glass, for a grand total of 8.9%). You would think all of his plus athleticism would lead to a few more boards, or at least a higher career rate than Danny Granger or Josh Howard.

While AI2 has been effective drawing shooting fouls in the past, getting over 7 FTA per game in the 2006-07 season, these days Iguodala is averaging only 5 FTA per game. Over 40 minutes per game for a guy often with the ball in his hands, that’s not all that impressive. The reasons for this decrease mirror the reason for his increased reliance on jumpers: the presence of Iverson and Brand.

Beyond the four factors analysis, AI2 has significant value as a defensive stopper. Despite his average scoring and rebounding, Iguodala has consistently rated at the top of 82games production ratings for the 76ers, largely on the strength of holding the opposing player to a subpar PER.* These statistics work with what most NBA watchers see, which is a strong, long and tough athlete who does not give up anything easily, and who excels in the sort of lock-down defense that is more valuable than the misleading steals-and-blocks method of playing defense, like this guy has perfected.

Future Concerns

What do we make of the statistics outlined above? Are his dips in FG% and FTA, and corresponding increase in ill-advised 3P attempts just a fleeting consequence of trying to assimilate proud veterans, or are they indicative of a new trend. We can call that trend Vince Carter Syndrome; VCS afflicts talented, top-flight athletes who decide they have made too much money to be bothered with getting high percentage looks anymore.

Additionally, though AI2 just turned 26 two days ago, he has played 40 minutes per game and 80 games per year basically his entire 5 1/2 year career. As I mentioned above, Iguodala is not a guy that coasts all that much either. In this way, part of his value going forward is tied up in his outstanding durability and ability to bear down on lots of defensive possessions. How much longer can he do it? Either he is an injury risk going forward, or he will have to cut back the effort on one end. Both scenarios limit his value going forward.

At a macro level, any team trading for AI2 is going to want to know whether they want to be stuck with his big contract in an era when the NBA salary cap and luxury tax may continue to shrink. The presence of high-volume, low percentage chuckers (AI, Lou Williams, Willie Green) and big guys who don’t command double teams (Sam Dalembert, Reggie Evans, Marresse Speights, Brand) throughout AI2’s tenure makes it difficult to know what Iguodala would look like on a balanced roster run by competent management. Iguodala maintains an inconsistent reputation around the league, and is likely only a good fit on up-tempo teams that can forgive his shot selection, while reaping the benefits of his defense, athleticism, and growing passing acumen.

Final Verdict

Iguodala is a difficult player to get a read on going forward. With supbar rebounding numbers and declining field goal attempts close to the basketball, Iguodala seems a poor candidate for the “small 4” role that the Suns created for Shawn Marion to create mismatches. If he can improve his shooting, he will survive as a wing player with the ability to handle the ball and pass into his 30s. Otherwise, his value is tied up in defensive effort, which for wing players is often a younger man’s skill.

*82games.com actually uses a proprietary PER substitute that its operators suggest using as one would use PER.